Views:10 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2020-04-06 Origin:Site
History only makes sense when we look back, and there will never be a final conclusion. ------ Henry Kissinger
This article is divided into three parts
Part One: Current epidemic development and national response
Part II: Far-reaching international relations
Part Three: Impact on Macro and Investment
A big change that hasn't happened in a hundred years is accelerated by a COVID-19.
1. The rapid spread of overseas epidemics, stricter control, and countries' unexpected monetary and fiscal stimulus policies
Two weeks have passed since the last article, and many things have happened in these two weeks. First, the good news:
After the G20 meeting, countries successively issued strong monetary and fiscal policies. Especially after the call of Chinese and American leaders, the transportation of international medical resources was basically smooth. The large amount of medical supplies provided by China to the outside world is of great significance. The world's factories are making full efforts to produce medical equipment And materials to ease the shortage of materials in Europe and America. After experiencing a 30% decline in the stock market, the US government quickly introduced the strongest stimulus policy in history to combat the possible economic recession. Some people say that the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is similar to that of 1929 plus World War II. The economy's short-term decline has been faster than the same period in 1929, while the overall control of society and the mobilization of medical personnel are only comparable in wartime. The hedging policies issued by countries such as Europe and the United States are still relatively timely. Nowadays, people in Europe and the United States and other countries are at home and their production is stagnant. They can only rely on financial subsidies and printing money to support them. I repeat one important inference from the previous article: saving talent is saving the city, and the faster you save people, the faster you can save the city. Only when the spread of the epidemic has been greatly reduced, and people's panic reduced, can economic activity pick up quickly. Compared with the easy-to-reach boundaries of fiscal and monetary policies, there are objective conditions for the improvement of administrative and medical capabilities, and the situation varies from country to country.
The stimulus in the United States exceeded 2008. The Fed not only quickly lowered the benchmark interest rate to close to zero, but also claimed to be prepared to provide unlimited liquidity and QE to the market. Subsidies and unemployment insurance, financial support and assistance to enterprises, and financial subsidies to the medical system. Seemingly suddenly, such a thorough and huge plan can be quickly introduced and passed in the two houses, and the efficiency of the American political and business elite can still be felt. Looking ahead, as the epidemic continues, global financial monetization will be inevitable.
The Chinese government expects that it will also introduce some stimulus policies to protect growth and people ’s livelihood. At present, monetary policy has been advanced. With the convening of the two sessions, the economic growth target for this year will be further clarified. While the long-term policies will support the new infrastructure in the fields of science and technology, industry, and consumption, it is still the best choice to maintain appropriate policy stabilization and avoid policy stimuli that are too short and too fast in the short term.
Let's talk briefly about the epidemic situation:
Domestically, the epidemic control has been further consolidated
As of this weekend, the number of domestic diagnoses has been less than 5,000. In addition to Hubei, other provinces and cities have only sporadic local diagnoses. Except Wuhan, other places in Hubei Province have opened up traffic. At present, the focus of epidemic prevention has shifted from internal control to prevention of external input. With the return of a large number of overseas people and a high proportion of carrying viruses, the pressure on the prevention and control situation in cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai and Guangzhou is still greater; some asymptomatic virus carriers have appeared in various places. Economic activity has increased significantly in the recent past, but it is still necessary to wear masks and appropriately reduce intensive personnel contact.
Overseas, the situation in Europe is grim, and the number of diagnoses in the US is rising rapidly
Both Europe and the United States have begun to exercise stricter personnel control. Italy and Spain currently have more than 100,000 diagnoses, and France and Germany will soon exceed this data, and the overall confirmed data does not have a significant downward trend. The adequate level of medical resources in various countries determines the treatment status of critically ill patients, especially Italian and Spanish doctors and nurses have a high percentage of diagnoses and lack adequate protection. Basically, the outbreaks in Italy and Spain have exceeded the load of medical resource services. Their high diagnosed mortality rate shows the shortage of medical resources and the choice of rescue targets. Although major European countries are further tightening control, there are still low-intensity population movements and masks are not popular. A large proportion of patients with mild disease are still isolated and recovering at home. According to experience, 70% of infections come from community infections, and the inability to treat mild patients will easily infect other members of the family. Various observations and analysis, even in Germany with the richest medical resources, do not expect to control the spread and rescue personnel as quickly as Wuhan. Its current policy is still only to reduce the rate of proliferation, smooth the pressure of the patient ’s rapid rise, and avoid the running of medical resources. . I used to think that the United Kingdom would start to avoid herd immunity (group immunity), but the actual situation may still be passive defense under desperation. It is difficult for administrative means in Europe and other countries to quickly block the virus circulation in the short term, and if it is released too soon in the future Control, the result is still easy to become Darwin's natural choice. China has fought annihilation, and Europe has already fought a war of attrition.
The number of diagnoses in the United States has exceeded 300,000. With the rapid testing this week, the number of diagnoses of 20,000 to 30,000 per day is basically maintained. The United States does have strong mobilization capabilities and economic strength. However, due to COVID-19, it has There is widespread proliferation, and the diagnosis rate in areas such as New York State has remained above 20%, and the actual number of potential infections may still be large.
The spread and isolation of people in Africa, India, Southeast Asia, the Americas and other regions have also begun this week, and these underdeveloped and densely populated areas will undoubtedly be a new round of epidemic development. Although we are a bit worried about the number of diagnoses in the United States that are rising rapidly, at least the data is becoming more transparent and revealing and showing its medical strength, and the opaqueness and ignorance of these less developed regions is terrible. When I think of the dense population and sanitary conditions on the streets in some countries, I feel a little shudder. In the face of this situation that may come, the IMF has taken active actions and called for it in recent days.
2. What is the inflection point of the epidemic?
After observing the measures and actions of various countries for a long time, I predict that China's successful example of domestic control of COVID-19 will not be fully realized in European and American countries. In terms of results, China ’s measures have achieved good results in two ways, quickly blocking the spread of the virus from Wuhan to all parts of the country, protecting most other nationals, and avoiding further panic; second, serious patients Get a good rescue. The population of Hubei is almost the same as that of Italy. Will the result of the master be the same? It is not easy to conclude that apart from isolation and wearing masks, the biggest difference is that the key to the success of the Wuhan War Epidemic is to gather support and treatment from all over the country. Fifty thousand outstanding medical personnel across the country went to Hubei with adequate equipment and good protection. This large-scale professional support and material mobilization is unmatched by any single European country. Different abilities naturally cannot require the same result.
The inflection point of the epidemic has two meanings: firstly, the number of newly diagnosed people has been greatly reduced; secondly, the size of the stock of society (including diagnosed and potential virus carriers) has reached a controllable small number, The patient's recovery was well confirmed. Optimistically speaking, it is easy to reach the first one, but it is not easy to reach the second one, because once the control is easily released, a certain number of virus carriers may continue to cause a second relapse of the epidemic. In the context of lack of adequate medical resources, are those mild patients isolated at home really isolated at home? Similarly, it is difficult to know whether rehabilitated patients have relapsed. Therefore, the larger the number of patients, the longer the rescue time and the greater the potential carrier and range of the virus, the longer the economic stagnation.
As far as the current situation is concerned, in addition to affirming the efforts and results achieved by our country, we must also understand it from the perspective of other countries, from the reality of social organization, culture, national strength, etc. After all, our country ’s The system and the character of the eastern nation are not replicable in most countries. The inherent rationality and loneliness of the British, the rigor of the Germans, the enthusiasm of the Italians and Spanish, and the spirit of extreme freedom of the French, these life and cultural habits cannot be changed in the short term, and these national characteristics are responding to the epidemic. The performance in the most vivid. From Japan, South Korea, Singapore to China, the self-discipline, hard work, and discipline of the East Asian nation will undoubtedly help us fight against the new crown. In addition, the administrative capacity and medical resources of the governments of various countries are also very different. One hypothesis is that China ’s per capita GDP is drawn. Most other countries in the world below this may not have sufficient economic and medical means to cope with it. A large-scale outbreak occurred.
3. Development of vaccines
The vast majority of patients with COVOD-19 have no obvious symptoms and are able to recover on their own, while critically ill patients often have more urgent dyspnea, especially for the middle-aged and elderly people with weak resistance, which can easily lead to other complications and prompt treatment Critical patients are very necessary. Not only the ventilator but also other medicines are needed. This requires not only adequate equipment and medicines, but also experienced medical care. In some serious foreign countries, medical treatment for the elderly is very difficult. At present, there is still a lack of specific drugs, and more control of the disease still has to start from the perspective of vaccine development.
Now both China and the United States are actively developing the COVID-19 vaccine. At the earliest, from the beginning of March, it will take one to one and a half years to complete the phase III clinical trial. The development of RNA vaccines is not easy. For example, the HIV virus is particularly variable, but there are also corresponding vaccines for influenza A and B. The development is still promising, mainly concentrated on the concentrated technical route: mRNA vaccine, adenovirus, inactivation Live vaccines, and component vaccines. The mRNA vaccine technology is currently more frontier and leading, and has received a lot of attention in recent years. The United States Moderna has adopted this route this time. The US government is currently rapidly advancing clinical trials, but globally, so far, the mRNA vaccine technology route There is no particularly successful experience yet, and further observation is needed. The development of inactivated and inactivated vaccines must first understand the mechanism of coronavirus, this condition is not yet available. The component vaccine technology because of the low expression of the new coronavirus has not been applied to the development of the new corona vaccine. In addition, the academician Chen Wei team in China currently uses a relatively mature adenovirus vaccine route, and has successfully developed an anti-Ebola virus vaccine before.
Part II: Far-reaching international relations
1. The epidemic caused deep-seated problems in international politics and economy
This epidemic will profoundly affect the world order. Not only will it be a short-term impact on the international political and economic system and globalization dominated by the United States, but it may also profoundly affect the economy, politics, and culture of various countries in the time of our generation. And life. This outbreak not only blocked the movement of international personnel, but also gradually created a gap between different countries and different races. Undoubtedly, in the battle against the epidemic, neoliberalism began to decline, and various countries are not strengthening internal control to varying degrees.
The impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy is neither a war nor a traditional economic recession. It is caused by a public health event that affects the world. The traditional monetary and fiscal hedging methods have limited effects. This is a test on the one hand. The comprehensive national strength of a country also tests social management. In the short term, the global economy has entered a state of lockout. The second quarter of the US economy fell only 25% -30% year-on-year in a single quarter. This is a relatively neutral forecast. Whether to extend the emergency depends on the recent development of the US epidemic. The number of diagnoses in more and more countries is increasing rapidly, and the economic downtime around the world is prolonging.
After the financial crisis in 2008, after more than a decade of economic recovery, the essential problems that plagued countries, especially Western countries, have not changed. That is, the domestic aspect: the contradiction between the increasing gap between rich and poor and slow economic growth; the international aspect: the contradiction between the outdated traditional international order and rights and the changes in the comprehensive strength of countries. The sudden arrival of the epidemic triggered a concentrated outbreak of these contradictions in the short term. At present, the main pressures faced by various countries are: internally, the unemployment caused by the economic shutdown is too long, which is not conducive to social stability; on the international side, European and American countries that traditionally dominate international rights are under the impact of sudden epidemics. , And did not come up with the corresponding strong economic and technological strength. In comparison, the organization and production capacity of East Asian countries are superior. The international rights conflicts and frictions based on the changes in comprehensive national strength will inevitably become more and more manifest in future international relations.
At present, the balance sheets of US financial institutions are better than 2008, but the debt leverage of some industries and companies is relatively high, especially after the oil price fell sharply, which directly impacted the oil and gas industry. With the extension of the epidemic, aviation, tourism, and consumer companies Both are faced with the disruption of cash flow and the risk of debt, and financial assistance can only solve the temporary difficulties. The Fed's initiative as a way to largely block the economic suspension into a debt crisis. The weakening domestic economy and increased unemployment have also worsened the political space of moderates in various countries. At the same time, the sooner political leaders who take strong measures to fight the epidemic, the earlier the increase in public opinion support.
Over the past two decades, with the development of globalization and the narrowing of the gap in productivity between Eastern and Western countries, the overall pattern of the world has been to dilute the consciousness struggle and jointly seek economic development. As large as a country and as small as an organization, the legitimacy of its existence mainly includes two aspects: noble goals and creeds at the spiritual and ideal levels; and the well-being of most people in real life. In a good state, the two complement each other and are indispensable, but this time the attitude and ability to treat the epidemic reflect the true face and ability of each country. In recognition of the seriousness of the problem and in the face of the epidemic, our government has won the hearts of the people by fighting the epidemic throughout the country, blocking the spread of the virus to protect most citizens, and trying to take care of every patient. In contrast, those countries that are expecting group immunization and helplessly ignoring the lives of older people and doctors ’protection have been tested for their long-held values of benevolence, equality, and freedom.
2. European and American countries are busy fighting the epidemic, and international leadership is lacking
In order to curb the spread of the new crown, European and American countries are now slowly recognizing and partially practicing our country ’s practices, but in order to overcome the epidemic as soon as possible, global action is needed in the sharing of information and technology, production and transportation of materials, coordination of finance and currency, etc. This urgently requires the strong leadership of the international community and the full cooperation of all countries. The current reality is that in the face of the crisis, the United States, which had previously acted as a global leader, showed a lack of its own will and ability. This is undoubtedly the result of the reluctance of all countries and the United States to see. Although this incident cannot resemble Britain ’s rapid loss of its global leadership after the 1956 Suez incident, it will indeed force the United States to re-examine its foreign policy over the past few years, and carefully use its national strength to invest in direction and international influence. Effective coordination between G2, G8 and G20. After President Trump took office, the military contraction from Europe and the Middle East, and trade frictions around the world, as well as the clearly pursued "U.S. interests first" policy, have not only caused Russia-U.S. And China-U.S. The huge gap between allies; on the other hand, the "Machiavelli" -style internal and foreign policy has made the United States increasingly deviate from the traditional humanistic ideas advocated by the United States, and it is unpopular and unhelpful. To regain leadership, we must actively take part in defeating the domestic epidemic and coordinating the global victory over the crisis. China has undoubtedly gained such influence.
In order to fight the epidemic, from China to Europe and the United States, the economies and people of all countries have endured huge sacrifices. As time goes on, social expectations and public resentment will undoubtedly increase. How to maintain the public's trust in the government and other groups in society and the country's confidence are issues that must be carefully considered by the incumbent and need to find a realistic solution. On a positive note, if the government can show strong protection of the people and the economy, this is undoubtedly a good time to invisibly increase the national cohesion and international influence; on the contrary, if the performance of the anti-epidemic process is just blame With the inefficient state and administrative capacity, it is difficult for people ’s dissatisfaction to settle, and there is the possibility that they will be used by politicians and the media and intend to blame their mistakes to other countries. Facing the practical problems, how to guide the development and direction of public opinion will directly affect the future Sino-US relations. Looking further ahead, the economic impact of the epidemic will eventually pass, and the politicization trend of the future epidemic in the West is bound to rise.
3. The epidemic is a test of the comprehensive strength of various countries and the decline of neoliberalism
In the early stage, Japanese scholar Kaguchi wrote that China would be a country that "should never be warned against," and said that the capabilities displayed during the anti-epidemic process are highly consistent with their war capabilities. Through this crisis management, a signal was sent to all countries: that China, like the United States, is a country with powerful capabilities. With the strengthening of social regulation, there has been a strong impact on liberalism and anarchism in various countries in the world. "Open society" is a bit powerless in the face of crises, and governments with huge powers must use this power with caution.
4. The Sino-US material transportation and public opinion warfare are strengthened at the same time
From the historical experience, most countries tend to be conservative after experiencing major disasters. Against the background of shortage of materials, the United States has given a green light to importing Chinese-made medical equipment and materials. However, the Chinese government urgently needs to strengthen mutual trust and cooperation between the two countries in this process to create a good environment for the relationship between the two countries after the epidemic. In the face of fighting the epidemic situation and the economic recession, fighting is two harms, and cooperation is both benefits. In the past two weeks, the fierce battle between government officials of various countries has been competing for the right of international public opinion.
How to avoid the Thucydides trap and further confrontation, the two sides still need to strengthen communication and mutual trust rationally and unite friendly people. Today, when the United States is increasingly concerned about the decline of its leadership, China may still need to reiterate: In addition to ensuring the country ’s core interests, it does not seek to challenge the international order, nor seek to replace the traditional creed of American leadership in world affairs; In the process of force demonstration, we must clearly tell the United States not to over-squeeze China ’s goodwill and development space in the future, and excessive containment will only be counterproductive. As a highly industrialized and powerful social organization with a population of 1.4 billion, the Chinese government is They have played a huge role in getting rid of poverty, controlling nationalist sentiment and seeking peaceful development. At the same time, how to deal with unforeseen unreasonable accusations requires wisdom and means, and it is impossible to be ambiguous in dealing with the major right and wrong of the origin of the virus.
At this week ’s Foreign Ministry press conference, almost every session was responding to Western media ’s doubts, such as:
On April 3, we will not use it (to assist foreign countries in fighting the epidemic) as a geopolitical weapon or tool.
On April 2, China has done its utmost to be open, transparent and responsible.
On April 1, the difference in certification standards should not be an obstacle to the cooperation of anti-epidemic materials.
On March 31, rhetoric accused China of foreign aid, which was not conducive to international anti-epidemic cooperation.
In the future, the world's scientific and technological competition will become more intense, and the occurrence of the epidemic situation proves that whoever has the commanding heights of information and medical technology will have a grasp of the future. The traditional large-scale production capacity requires good infrastructure, sufficient industrial workers, perfect supporting industries and a broad market. Now we need to add one more ability to respond to emergencies: the organization and discipline of the government and the people in an emergency.
Part Three: Impact on Macro and Investment
1. Some impacts on the domestic macro economy
The impact of the epidemic will change our traditional way of life to a great extent. We must reassess the assumptions of many investments, especially for our traditional consumption, work, travel, entertainment, and communication. The selection of industries and companies at the micro level should evaluate these assumptions.
1. The decoupling of some international industrial chains continues. Not only for high-tech products, but also for medical and daily necessities, the production process has begun to pursue localization and short-distance.
2. Increase investment in life medicine and technology. The expansion of issues such as New Crown and African Swine Fever has increased the human society ’s increasing demand for biosecurity.
3. Technology changes work life. Demand for 5G, remote office, online shopping, and information technology services has increased.
4. Enterprises and individuals pay more attention to cash flow and savings, and reduce unnecessary expenses.
2. The state-led non-market economic development model will be further strengthened
From a top-down macro-strategy analysis of A-shares, in my opinion, it is mainly divided into two schools (my name is the market economy school and the policy school), and behind these are two deep-level ideas at work. One is called Western economics (dominated by market cycles), and the other is political economics (based on planned economy and policy intervention, which has a huge impact on industrial policies). Speaking of which, do you think A shares are more like that? A shares are of course both, sometimes the central left hand is stronger and sometimes the right hand is stronger. The market law prevails in the procyclical period, and the planned economy is more in the countercyclical period. From the Kitchin cycle to the Jugra cycle, at a certain time inflection point, the attractiveness of the cycle will strongly attract the market to cycle back and forth. At this moment, the macro analysis is often more important than the micro; when the Merrill Lynch clock turns to recession, In order to emphasize macro-control, Keynes will not ignore it at this time. He will reverse control and smooth the cycle. At this time, you will see new stimulus and industrial policies. Under the background of overflowing liquidity, many themes and styles of investment have been spawned. When the large-cap stocks perform better, and when the small-cap stocks perform better, these two hands are at work. After the dividend of globalization, the world will undoubtedly face a return to a more closed and conservative policy. If the degree of economic recovery is limited, then the state-led non-market economic development model will be further strengthened, and policy intervention on the micro level will be more frequent. In the future, we will definitely Seeing that more domestic policies tend to be in the fields of information technology, industrial upgrading, and independent innovation of core technologies.
The issue of stock market bulls still depends more on the quality of listed companies and less on the results. The domestic understanding of this issue is a bit biased. When we talk about value investment and long-term investment, it seems that we can equate it with the stock market, which can only rise or fall for ten years. In fact, looking at the world, the only country where the stock market can keep up for decades is the United States, which is a serious and objective issue. Because the finance we study is the finance of the United States, we subconsciously think that the stock market should be like that, but the stock market bull is not of universal significance in the world. In fact, there is no listed company that can continue to make profits in the global market, and there is no company that leads the innovation of technology and models. It is difficult to talk about the stock market's bulls, not to mention that high volatility liquidity and risk appetite also greatly affect the market. The Japanese stock market lost two decades after the 1990s, and it has only improved in recent years. When I was studying in Europe, FTSE in the UK was 6,000 points, and this high point was about 7,000 points almost 20 years later. Recently, it fell again. The index waves in France and Germany are similar. Therefore, it is the sustained profitability and market space of the company that ultimately support the stock market. The phrase "there is a country only if there is a stock market". In general, it is the country that provides us with security guarantees so that listed companies can operate smoothly; a more in-depth explanation is that only those companies with international and domestic competitiveness can enjoy China's Years of expanding markets and global dividends. Without national economic development, it is difficult for the enterprise market to increase rapidly, and because the profitability of different industries is completely different, the dividends to enjoy this market are also different. This is not a GSP concept. Therefore, in the long run, the structure of the industry portfolio is more important than the index, and there are relatively more long-term bull stocks in consumer medical stocks.
3. The test of extreme markets is everyone's beliefs and values
I recently studied roadshow interviews with several domestic bigwigs and colleagues, and marveled at their profound understanding of the stock market and human nature. In the face of the biggest short-term economic shock after World War II, some people are optimistic and some are pessimistic. Growth stock investment and value stock investment always go well; investment speculation is sometimes unclear. Sometimes I feel that A-share fund managers are really difficult, not only to test the values of investors (the recent outstanding fund managers seem to have had a period of depression in a few years ago), in the extreme moments such as the financial crisis, your last portfolio hold What kind of positions you hold and how you view the market and the future also depends on the issue of faith. These are all issues that cannot be discussed and understood, but I still agree with the words of a friend of my fund manager: "All goodwill will pay off in the long run, and the strategy and investment are the same."
Looking forward to the future of international relations, today, with the flow of people and the high degree of internationalization of the industrial chain, in the face of the epidemic, no country can protect itself, and it has never felt the practical significance of the community of human destiny as deeply as it is now. Only by letting go of prejudices and working together can the international community overcome disease faster. What is most commendable recently is that, whether in Wuhan, Italy or Spain, in the face of the epidemic, we can see that many medical workers who are brave to save people regardless of personal safety are shining with the most brilliant human glory.